6月,調控力度加大,市場供應收緊,成交活躍性降低,市場運力富余較多,沿海運輸市場運價下跌。6月25日,上海航運交易所發布的沿海(散貨)綜合運價指數報收1223.46點,較上月同期下跌5.6%,月平均值為1246.07點,較上月下跌9.9%。
1、煤(mei)炭(tan)運輸
進入6月(yue),氣溫升(sheng)高(gao),刺激居民(min)用電負荷攀升(sheng),旺季(ji)特征逐步(bu)顯(xian)現。隨(sui)著國家(jia)發(fa)(fa)改委不斷加大(da)能耗(hao)雙控(kong)力(li)度(du),部分省市(shi)要求工廠(chang)錯峰生產(chan)(chan),電廠(chang)日耗(hao)煤(mei)(mei)(mei)量(liang)總體(ti)(ti)平穩(wen)。政策調控(kong)力(li)度(du)加碼,煤(mei)(mei)(mei)企長(chang)協合同維持高(gao)兌現率,下游對市(shi)場(chang)煤(mei)(mei)(mei)采(cai)購(gou)謹慎。受(shou)安檢(jian)、環保及產(chan)(chan)能等因(yin)素限(xian)(xian)制,主產(chan)(chan)區(qu)(qu)整體(ti)(ti)增產(chan)(chan)低(di)于(yu)預期,對市(shi)場(chang)補充有限(xian)(xian),煤(mei)(mei)(mei)炭(tan)供需矛盾仍然存在,另外,在國家(jia)政策引(yin)導(dao)下,大(da)宗商(shang)品價(jia)格出現短暫下行(xing),坑(keng)口煤(mei)(mei)(mei)價(jia)與(yu)港口煤(mei)(mei)(mei)價(jia)出現倒掛,產(chan)(chan)地發(fa)(fa)貨(huo)意愿(yuan)不強,港口煤(mei)(mei)(mei)炭(tan)資源緊(jin)張。節日臨近,因(yin)前期煤(mei)(mei)(mei)礦事故(gu)影響,多(duo)方(fang)檢(jian)查聯合發(fa)(fa)力(li),煤(mei)(mei)(mei)礦關停面積(ji)繼(ji)續擴大(da),供給出現時段(duan)性、區(qu)(qu)域性偏(pian)緊(jin),價(jia)格走勢不明(ming)。受(shou)此影響,本(ben)月(yue)煤(mei)(mei)(mei)炭(tan)市(shi)場(chang)買賣雙方(fang)均較(jiao)(jiao)為謹慎,市(shi)場(chang)貨(huo)源整體(ti)(ti)偏(pian)弱,下游電廠(chang)保持觀望(wang)態(tai)度(du),長(chang)協煤(mei)(mei)(mei)“壓艙石”作用凸顯(xian),尤其華南地區(qu)(qu),受(shou)疫情和二季(ji)度(du)進口煤(mei)(mei)(mei)放開影響,內貿煤(mei)(mei)(mei)炭(tan)采(cai)購(gou)動力(li)較(jiao)(jiao)弱,大(da)船運(yun)力(li)富余。月(yue)末,唐山地區(qu)(qu)高(gao)爐(lu)限(xian)(xian)產(chan)(chan),煤(mei)(mei)(mei)炭(tan)等貨(huo)種需求進一步(bu)減少,市(shi)場(chang)商(shang)談趨(qu)弱,成交停滯,運(yun)價(jia)加速下跌。
6月(yue)(yue)(yue)(yue)(yue)25日,上(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)海航(hang)(hang)(hang)運(yun)交易所發布的(de)煤(mei)炭貨種運(yun)價(jia)(jia)指數(shu)報收1248.85點(dian),較(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)上(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)月(yue)(yue)(yue)(yue)(yue)同(tong)期下(xia)跌(die)(die)(die)(die)7.3%,月(yue)(yue)(yue)(yue)(yue)平均值為(wei)(wei)1282.52點(dian),較(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)上(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)月(yue)(yue)(yue)(yue)(yue)下(xia)跌(die)(die)(die)(die)13.0%。6月(yue)(yue)(yue)(yue)(yue)30日,上(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)海航(hang)(hang)(hang)運(yun)交易所發布的(de)中(zhong)國(guo)沿海煤(mei)炭運(yun)價(jia)(jia)指數(shu)(CBCFI)中(zhong),秦皇(huang)島(dao)至(zhi)(zhi)上(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)海(4-5萬dwt)航(hang)(hang)(hang)線(xian)市(shi)場(chang)運(yun)價(jia)(jia)為(wei)(wei)28.3元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)/噸(dun)(dun)(dun),較(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)上(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)月(yue)(yue)(yue)(yue)(yue)同(tong)期下(xia)跌(die)(die)(die)(die)17.0元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)/噸(dun)(dun)(dun),月(yue)(yue)(yue)(yue)(yue)平均運(yun)價(jia)(jia)為(wei)(wei)37.4元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)/噸(dun)(dun)(dun),較(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)上(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)月(yue)(yue)(yue)(yue)(yue)下(xia)跌(die)(die)(die)(die)27.2%;秦皇(huang)島(dao)港(gang)(gang)至(zhi)(zhi)張家(jia)港(gang)(gang)(4-5萬dwt)航(hang)(hang)(hang)線(xian)市(shi)場(chang)運(yun)價(jia)(jia)為(wei)(wei)30.7元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)/噸(dun)(dun)(dun),較(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)上(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)月(yue)(yue)(yue)(yue)(yue)同(tong)期下(xia)跌(die)(die)(die)(die)17.1元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)/噸(dun)(dun)(dun),月(yue)(yue)(yue)(yue)(yue)平均運(yun)價(jia)(jia)為(wei)(wei)40.0元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)/噸(dun)(dun)(dun),較(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)上(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)月(yue)(yue)(yue)(yue)(yue)下(xia)跌(die)(die)(die)(die)25.4%;秦皇(huang)島(dao)至(zhi)(zhi)南(nan)京(jing)(3-4萬dwt)航(hang)(hang)(hang)線(xian)市(shi)場(chang)運(yun)價(jia)(jia)為(wei)(wei)37.8元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)/噸(dun)(dun)(dun),較(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)上(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)月(yue)(yue)(yue)(yue)(yue)同(tong)期下(xia)跌(die)(die)(die)(die)16.4元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)/噸(dun)(dun)(dun),月(yue)(yue)(yue)(yue)(yue)平均運(yun)價(jia)(jia)為(wei)(wei)47.2元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)/噸(dun)(dun)(dun),較(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)上(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)月(yue)(yue)(yue)(yue)(yue)下(xia)跌(die)(die)(die)(die)21.3%。華南(nan)航(hang)(hang)(hang)線(xian),秦皇(huang)島(dao)港(gang)(gang)至(zhi)(zhi)廣州(6-7萬dwt)航(hang)(hang)(hang)線(xian)市(shi)場(chang)運(yun)價(jia)(jia)為(wei)(wei)39.0元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)/噸(dun)(dun)(dun),較(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)上(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)月(yue)(yue)(yue)(yue)(yue)同(tong)期下(xia)跌(die)(die)(die)(die)21.5元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)/噸(dun)(dun)(dun),月(yue)(yue)(yue)(yue)(yue)平均運(yun)價(jia)(jia)為(wei)(wei)50.7元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)/噸(dun)(dun)(dun),較(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)上(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)月(yue)(yue)(yue)(yue)(yue)下(xia)跌(die)(die)(die)(die)22.1%。
2、金屬礦石(shi)運輸
6月(yue),針(zhen)對部分大宗商品(pin)價(jia)格出現較(jiao)(jiao)大幅度上(shang)漲,對實體經濟特(te)別是制造(zao)(zao)業(ye)企(qi)業(ye)造(zao)(zao)成(cheng)較(jiao)(jiao)大影響,國家發展改(gai)革(ge)委會(hui)同(tong)有關部門(men)多措并舉,市(shi)場投機炒作(zuo)開始降溫,鋼材價(jia)格調整,下(xia)(xia)游觀望情緒濃厚,市(shi)場整體操作(zuo)積極(ji)性不高,終端需求(qiu)釋放有限。加上(shang)6月(yue)是鋼材需求(qiu)的(de)傳統淡季,鋼材市(shi)場成(cheng)交(jiao)整體表現一般。同(tong)時,鐵礦(kuang)(kuang)石價(jia)格高位(wei)運行,鋼廠采購熱情降溫。本月(yue),金屬(shu)礦(kuang)(kuang)石市(shi)場成(cheng)交(jiao)冷清(qing),運價(jia)小幅下(xia)(xia)跌(die)。6月(yue)25日,金屬(shu)礦(kuang)(kuang)石貨(huo)種運價(jia)指數報(bao)收1196.67點,較(jiao)(jiao)上(shang)月(yue)同(tong)期(qi)下(xia)(xia)跌(die)6.5%,月(yue)平均(jun)值為(wei)1218.56點,較(jiao)(jiao)上(shang)月(yue)下(xia)(xia)跌(die)7.9。
3、糧食運(yun)輸
在進(jin)口玉米(mi)拍(pai)賣以(yi)及進(jin)口谷(gu)物高峰(feng)期到(dao)來(lai)壓力下,貿易商出貨意愿(yuan)明顯增強,積極出貨。需(xu)求(qiu)方面,深加(jia)工玉米(mi)需(xu)求(qiu)低迷,疊加(jia)進(jin)口玉米(mi)拍(pai)賣來(lai)襲等(deng)利空因素打壓,玉米(mi)需(xu)求(qiu)持(chi)續受限,下游飼料廠(chang)采購謹慎,沿海(hai)糧(liang)(liang)食運輸(shu)(shu)需(xu)求(qiu)延續低迷態勢。本月,糧(liang)(liang)食運輸(shu)(shu)市場成交(jiao)冷清,運價(jia)小幅下跌(die)。6月25日(ri),糧(liang)(liang)食貨種運價(jia)指數報收1422.32點(dian),較上(shang)月同期下跌(die)2.0%,月平均值為1420.62點(dian),較上(shang)月下跌(die)4.7%。
4、原油及成品油運輸
自(zi)5月(yue)中旬以來,受(shou)原(yuan)油(you)價(jia)格(ge)走勢良好以及政策面消息等因素影響,國內(nei)成(cheng)品(pin)油(you)批發(fa)價(jia)格(ge)整體呈現(xian)出上(shang)漲(zhang)走勢,6月(yue)11日24時國內(nei)成(cheng)品(pin)油(you)零售限(xian)價(jia)將迎年(nian)內(nei)第八次上(shang)調(diao)。成(cheng)品(pin)油(you)價(jia)格(ge)上(shang)漲(zhang)帶動市場(chang)情緒,上(shang)游出貨(huo)(huo)積(ji)極。加上(shang)部分煉廠檢修(xiu)結(jie)束,市場(chang)貨(huo)(huo)源成(cheng)交(jiao)活躍,運輸(shu)需求轉好,市場(chang)運力偏緊(jin),沿海成(cheng)品(pin)油(you)運價(jia)迎來上(shang)漲(zhang)。6月(yue)25日,上(shang)海航運交(jiao)易所(suo)發(fa)布的成(cheng)品(pin)油(you)貨(huo)(huo)種(zhong)運價(jia)指數為(wei)1476.51點,較上(shang)月(yue)同期上(shang)漲(zhang)3.7%;原(yuan)油(you)貨(huo)(huo)種(zhong)運價(jia)指數為(wei)1541.72點,與上(shang)月(yue)持平(ping)。